A bitcoin is not an investment, just as. I can have a stash of cash that is inflation proof just in case the government decides to wildly inflate the currency. Bitcoin values are delusional. But its likely just down the toilet. Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. You made an unsupported claim. Since every appliance (computer, lightbulb or actual heater) is a 100% efficient electrical heater in a thermodynamic sense, you could shut off your heaters and run mining computers instead, to get the same amount of heat. In the US we call it the full faith and credit of the United States. Yeah we could all gamble our way to FIRE, this week bitcoin, next week slot machines, poker, etc. SMH. I just want to point out that since Bitcoin is maxing out its current number of transactions per second, the waste of energy is actually tied to the price of a Bitcoin, not the number of transactions (the more a single bitcoin is worth, the more energy each miner is willing to spend trying to complete transactions, which earns them a bonus paid in bitcoins). This is exactly what I was thinking. If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. Just imagine if an universal decentralised currency becomes the worlds reserve currency! They know him as Mr. Money Mustache -- a gentleman who retired at the ripe age of 30 without a million-dollar salary. And nothing that can go on forever, does. I dont know, why gold and not platinum or palladium? Theres nothing fraudulent about Bitcoin its mass hysteria driving demand. but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. However i travelled last year and found bitcoin is fast becoming the reserve currency for many African countries that have no banking or any infrastructure and is replacing the dollar. (As Ronnie Chieng says, What IS it!?!?). Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? We cannot have better living conditions for half of humanity on this planet under a corrupt and manipulative central banking system of various countries, that are not even true democracies. I think its a bit of stretch to call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. Do not let your own brain trick you for easy solutions! The bitcoin price isnt rising because people are buying the coins to conduct real business. Any efficiency brought to commerce through blockchain technology are very likely to show up as increased dividends from index funds. A decentralised system where no human has the power to manipulate money supply is the best thing that any society can expect, to get its finances and economy in order. It seems like youre advocating for scenario #2. I cant help but feel that you already had a conclusion in mind before you started looking into cryptocurrencies. Do something useful with your money. Ignore this utterly irrational FUD and embrace the digital world. Basic Economics Vijay. And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. Good points? No. Danny Livewire Ive been investing steadily over a 20 year period. The bad news is that this means Bitcoin is going to keep wasting more and more electricity as the bubble goes on, and it doesnt matter that no one uses it anymore. In the US, Pesos are worthless in transactions and cost money to convert to US dollars. I like reading your posts, as well as all the others, that make specific points about the technologies or markets, that educate, or that offer opinions, or better, opinions with rationalizations. Try doing one thing the Banks dont want you to do, or the regimes in half the worlds countries dont want you to do, and you will know how financially ruined you will be! Thats why its unwise to go all-in on something just because its going up. Cryptocurrency could be the proverbial cure for cancer, but if its made illegal or heavily regulated through prudent or reactionary legislation (YMMV) it doesnt really matter, does it? So, Bitcoin is a protocol invented to solve a money problem that simply does not exist in the rich countries, which is where most of the money is. The act of speculating on an asset is what drives it to its proper price; they are critical players in the process of price discovery. I am so happy to see this article! Vijay, what MMM is saying is that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin cannot presently operate as currencies. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. as well as all legal forms of private sales (ie. While I dont consider Bitcoin an investment and I wouldnt advise anyone to pour their life-savings into it right now, I do encourage anyone reading this to buy a small amount and start using it to make everyday purchases. Currency is by far the most obvious application. Some guy on the internet . Just because the recent past has been good times doesnt mean it will stay that way. What a bad article. Yes, its unstable, and you wouldnt say trade it, but as a long term investment it has been proven itself. Nathanael The kids pulverize the bricks to make brick dust, which is the most valuable currency/commodity in their forest kingdom. Is it likely worth closer to $0 than to $20,000? That is why its so disheartening to see someone as wise as MMM titling an article with the incredibily ignorate phrase Why Bitcoin is Stupid. Hence, he advocates value investing not speculation. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! If you introduced a brand new commodity to the world, would you expect the price to be stable? Well said! (Aside from the threats of force that stem from legal tender laws.). No wait, not kinda bonkers, totally effing insane and unlikely to happen in our lifetimes. But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. You will also have to pay a fee to transfer from the exchange to your wallet. I am already looking forward to looking back and laughing at all the companies who did away with their normal businesses to become mining companies. Profit! Many are trying to perfect it but until there is a clear winner, different ones will emerge. Pure Air and a bunch of IOUs that it will eventually default on. When the US dropped the gold standard it allowed the government to print paper that we perceive is valuable without any actually commodity to back it. I advise you look at the 10-year PE ratio. Mr. Money Mustache is a thirty-something retiree who now writes about how we can all live a frugal, yet awesome, life of leisure. As for spending your Bitcoin, I digress. A similar dynamic is at play with stocks: Is $1 of ongoing future earnings worth sacrificing $1 today? Plus $20 to run the transaction. Its speculation, pure and simple. So just relax, lean into it, and grow rich with me. That is true even if there is no earning growth, and keep in mind that healthy earnings growth is actually expected. Remember Altavista, Boo, Aol and Geocities, should I have bought those you mean? Either way it wont end badly right? It has a track record though ill give you that. Why do you think so? Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. This volatility thing that seems to be biting you folks is because Bitcoin is at 200 Billion capitalisation today. January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. Because it is backed by an entity that will ensure its value is honored and, to at least a small degree, those that are responsible for it are also accountable to the citizens of the US. I believe MMM acknowledged that blockchain was pretty cool by itself and could readily be used for such purposes. The supply of Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow. The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. But boy, are you wrong on this one. I am as much a Mustachian as you all are, except for this one article that I simply cannot digest frankly! January 3, 2018, 7:20 am, If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it. Ryan Thomas And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. Is the theory that eventually there wont be anymore banks? Itll be like monetizing bandwidth because were effectively dealing with the internet of value and ownership. *pop*. Calling this a waste of human energy is NUTS. Im going to try putting some of my thoughts together in a post at the bottom. Think that would fly at the grocery store? But thats just the software side (Blockchain). But youre entitled to your opinion nonetheless. If you do not know, We have prepared this article about details of Mr. Money Mustache's short biography-wiki, career, professional life, personal life, wife, girlfriend, dating, divorce, kids, today's net worth, age, height, weight, and more facts. Go educate yourself first. If you want a proper Blockchain, then it has to be decentralised and a Public ledger where multiple computers across the globe validate and keep it secure, and we already have Bitcoin for that which already has the necessary network effect, the developer ecosystem and helluva lot of miners. Technology is always the game changer. Meanwhile, the honest, hard-working regular folks see their interest both plummet to nearly nothing, and they then see THAT minuscule interest TAXED AGAIN! And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. Enjoy your crash. Market prices are not set by consensus. Thank you Jane, I have been waiting for someone to point this out! Then it started falling as people cashed out. Cryptos may be the money of the future, but there is nothing sane about its rise this past year. And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. The reason is that its not an investment. For one, your irrational hatred of gold, whose function for human beings you do not seem to understand. . Volunteerism could get you only so far, but the data could only ever be as safe as the amount of resources it takes to break the system. Bitcoin is a case study, and they have no idea (or choose not to believe) that theyre headed for the unfortunate future footnotes of that case. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. Thats crazy. Educate yourself on why Bitcoin and Blockchain cannot be split up. Read your history, it happens occasionally. January 11, 2018, 12:03 am. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. This is where the speculating comes in. Bitcoin is a nascent technology and will evolve with time. I am smiling because Im content to let others gamble. However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). When evaluating investment bubbles, it means looking at where everyone is throwing their money no matter how many billions and being willing to say Bull. False analogies. Will it get me my money faster? frugalnacho We have been in an expansion (the weakest one in US history) for almost 9 years. Well thats all due to the crypto currency craze. (Now, as you mentioned, it is most likely just speculation driven by greed). When the common person does it, it can cause very big problems. Spot on VIJAY. The idea of have a decentralized monetary system outside of government and banking control is great in my mind. Probably the same will happen again. I would say, Probably the same would not happen again. Bill Batchelor About purse.io: Do you have to pay the transaction fee to deposit the BTC to escrow? Like every state currency, it derives its worth out of the fact that the state says you can *always* pay your taxes with it (and that shops have to accept it). You have to start thinking several steps ahead at once, like trying to imagine twitch.com in 1990. This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. In 2018 and 2019, expect the speculation to subside as more tokenomics becomes important for valuations. Even if you win some money through dumb luck, you have lost some time and life energy, which means you have lost. Maybe you know about Mr. Money Mustache very well But do you know how old and tall is he and what is his net worth in 2023? Guess what, we can automate all of those jobs with cryptocurrencies. I agree with MMMs eloquent outlining of the major concerns with investing in cryptocurrencies. Get listed and sell some shares. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! Blog readers. Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. Prices would rise, especially if the supply of these pills was limited (just as an artificial supply limit is built right into the Bitcoin algorithm.). (which is more Mustachian..), Michelle, Mr Buffetts advice is clearly correct I mean, its Warren Buffett were talking about. Seeing ATMs shows that it is slowly on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted. Mr Money Mustache 26-02-2023 Hobbyen. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. 100% agree. I also invested in a bitcoin two years ago, and paid off all my debt with it. No. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. Crypto is here to stay albeit probably not at insane prices. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. That is when we are talking equality and progress for all! Why do I trust the dollar? And btw, just switching currency is not going to remove any debt. God speed my friend. Its very informative and answers many questions you raise, 2. Mr. Butler Putting evaluation aside, what boggles my mind is how much electricity is being wasted on bitcoin every single day. A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent operation designed to steal peoples money. Favorite quote: Bitcoins growth is not based on its technology alone (which, while powerful, is open-source and therefore easily replicable) but rather on the strength of virality, encouraged by the vested interests who held early and invested in marketing it; with no genuine business underlying it, it acquires its (very substantial) memetic potency only from the evangelism of those whohodland preach., David Webbs great explanation: Bitcoin: the Worlds First Decentralized Ponzi Scheme, Preston Byrne again (brilliant guy! 36 terawatt is not something taken easily from renewables at current rates.. Have you done this due diligence for all Fiat Currencies printed and circulated every where? I think that gold is nothing special its a shiny rock. I totally agree. Theres no way I could have paid down my debt and netted $14.5k in stocks in less than a year with less than $5k in capital. Episode 496: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - Part 1 by Mr. Money Mustache. Theyre stunningly shiny, surprisingly heavy duty, and generating plenty of buzz on Twitter where Im giving them away. farmecologist https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, Matt Stephenson You WILL be wrong. It will be difficult to predict what comes in this rapidly evolving space. As for USD working has many reasons, required to participate in the largest economy in the world, the military power behind said economy, etc. There is no wealth and no trade without these two things, so you might as well go all-in and trust people. Undoubtedly the bubble will burst or mining difficulty will increase, but Ill be able to sell this supercomputer to some nerd play World of War Craft on. This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. The Ramsey Show is a podcast by Dave Ramsey, a financial guru and bestselling author. Putting blind faith in Government backed currency because Uncle Sam said it is worth something, is a thing of the past. Note that he didnt say the underlying technology (blockchain) is stupid. But really, I'm not a finance guy - someone who devotes most of his time to optimizing money. Yes. Again, only in nominal terms. I hope it wasn't, but as he said in the article, it's none of our damn business. Research further. Fiat currency has neither. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? LennStar Are you sure Amazon pays someone in unusable (to them) gift cards? What is the US Dollar pegged to? 3 years and 1 week later. Then in November I sold it and bought GBTC, which is a OTC fund holding bitcoins. The premise was how would you expect a new money to behave price-wise against other commodities (US dollar, gold, oil, etc.)? Anyway, what would he dump it for? The short answer is they can do nothing about it! Michael So for it to be a global currency taco bell is going to have to start paying kids in btc. Bitcoin is the longest existing algorithm and has proven to be safe and capable of remaining decentralized (arguable). For a long answer you need to understand the technicalities of it which I am not going to educate you on! This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. If youre in a position to do so, go for it. In one of my IRAs I bought some AAPl in 2009 for $28k. I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. Yeah, Ive discussed the mining with my friend from NVidia. I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. VTSAX returned over 22% last year. Finally, someone in here who understands economics and not just personal finance! Herd behavior? Gotta! On the other hand, paying a ridiculously high speculative price based only on what others *might* be willing to pay in the futurebased on little historical or reasonable evidencecertainly is insane. Mr. Money Mustache Even if they could benefit from the immutability, they could never be truly immutable in the sense that no trust is required at all to ascertain the legitimacy of the data. Take the decentralization, the trustlessness, the miners or the currency out and you throw the immutability out. Mr. Money Mustache's argument easily boils down to the soundbyte that "bitcoin's price is fundamentally unpredictable, which makes it a terrible investment decision.". how is this different than a crypto? Air and the US Dollar. Gold and tulips and coffee and salt and any other good at a fair price, however, are an entirely different story. How is that even possible? Could you please tell us what you are invested in and when you got in? Further more rants about the skyrocketing cost of housing and how many people cannot afford their mortgages, with further people saying mortgage payments wont matter because those people can just sell for more when the payments become a problem. Its closest to an MLM for me. Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. positive change I would say, the world is getting smaller) changes is because it makes things easier. It is 14 January, 2021 when I am writing this. Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. If you are disgusted with the mining costs of Bitcoin you should be but the fact remains new inventions like RaiBlocks has made cryptocurrency frictionless and without mining or fees with transactions at over 7,000 per second. There are dozens more data points just like these. Funny, I was recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking up the virtues of Bitcoin. They could also plateau until earnings catchup with prices.. This is Part 1 of 2. Google, Amazon and Facebook came out of it. Eenvoudig leven . Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. A wisened Mustachian looks for long term, steady gains, and their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed. January 4, 2018, 2:48 pm. This article is pretty below par in its research and very one sided. Ive been thinking of doing just that.. And then I put it off for a few weeks, and the price jumps up exponentially. Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Is the logical conclusion to short a mania or stay on the sidelines? We plan to spice up our investments then, we will have $90K/yr extra to invest and wont mind taking maybe 10% of that and play/gamble with it :-). After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! She works as a school monitor and the kids have an area of the forest next to the school to play in. I guess Petes point here is that block chain protocol has benefits but bitcoin is stupid. :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, Another great satire- Seth Myers take in bitcoin. Doesnt mean you cant speculate to help you get to FIRE sooner though. Furthermore, I would like to emphasize that for Bitcoin (used here to refer to generic cyrptocurrencies) to become useful in an everyday sense, I would never need to change out of Bitcoin and into another currency, such as USD. Sounds like a bubble to me. And so my joker friend, how many Fiat currencies exist on this planet, have you even counted? Just Keep Calm, and Keep Investing Despite all of this hype and all the froth in stock prices, a true investor's plan can remain stable through the seasons. Networking. All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. Great post. No one controls it, so no one can rewrite the data. Also, bitcoin lacks value in Kenya. Hows that any different. ie beauty counter for nerds. Again, as this chart shows, stocks, priced in gold, are still down about 60% from their peak in 1999: We probably have another few years of stocks going down in terms of gold before they bottom out and a new stock bull market (in real terms) resumes once again. If your chosen currency doesnt win out it goes to 0 since if it has no users it has no value. Id love to know what your background is. Woodser To me, the Bitcoin bet is basically a global Paypal that allows anyone in the world to use it. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. Blockchain is simply a nifty software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. 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The underlying technology ( blockchain ) is stupid - Part 1 by Mr. money --. I dont know, why gold and not just personal finance early, that difference skyrockets in favor cryptos.
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